Millennials have been unlucky when it comes to the economy. They’ve had to endure not one but two “once in a generation” recessions - first the financial crisis and now the coronavirus shutdown. Ten years ago, the economic catastrophe that saw the failure of several banks drew comparisons with the Great Depression. And now, thanks to the shutdown of the economy, the same thing looks like it is happening all over again.
For the non-economists among you, it is hard to understate the extremity of what is happening in the economy right now. Forecasters suggest that the economy could contract by up to 35 percent under the worst-case scenarios, paring back GDP to levels we last saw thirty years ago. All that new technology, capital, and enhanced productivity are disappearing in a puff of smoke and face masks. It is as if the internet, machine learning, and biotech never happened.
But even in the Great Depression, we didn’t see figures like this. Back then, recorded quarter-on-quarter contractions in output topped out at around 15 percent in most countries. We never saw anything approaching 25 percent, let alone 35 percent. In the Great Recession of ten years ago, output fell by around 4 to 6 percent - a severe contraction historically, but mild compared to the nightmare we have right now.
People, therefore, are going to get laid off. In fact, we already see this play out in spectacular fashion. Three million people filed for unemployment benefits in the first week of the lockdown, following by another three million in the second week. Then another six million in the third week.
These kinds of numbers are genuinely terrifying and paint a picture of what happens when you force millions of businesses to close their doors and cease providing services. A lot of you, therefore, will either find yourself furloughed or just out of work.
As we’ve discussed elsewhere, finding yourself without a job can be a painful experience. But it is also a massive opportunity. Circumstances force you to make a move you would never otherwise have taken. Your life is now on an entirely different trajectory, and it is up to your how you deal with it.
You should note that we’re not looking at an economy that is shut down, even if people must stay in their homes for years to come. Instead, we’re witnessing adaptation. Everyone you know is having to alter the way that they provide value to people while maintaining social distance. The reason so many people have lost their jobs is that a lot of work involves being physically proximate to people. Take that away, and you wind up with the situation we have right now.
It won’t last forever, though, even if the lockdown persists. Jobs will change, companies will adapt, and people will find themselves employed in different ways from before. Waitresses will become delivery drivers. Personal trainers will move their businesses online. Account managers will do their work over the telephone. It will all change.
On top of that, entrepreneurs will develop new companies that will provide new kinds of work. Eventually, they will exhaust the supply of labor and use it to their advantage. There’s always plenty of work to be done, even if we’re all stuck at home.
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